Jayson’s Campfire Chat – Spring 2024
Are you gonna wake up before you close your eyes?
Are you gonna hold the ones you love so tight?
We're gonna die, gonna die
So, do what makes you feel alive
We're running out of time
Running out of time
Wyatt Flores, Running Out of Time – from the album, Half Life, 2024
I read this week that a recently released AARP survey says that 1 in 4 adults age 50 and over have no retirement savings and don’t expect to ever retire. I found it disheartening and wondered whether in our American culture, where we don’t particularly take care of older adults the way other cultures do, what do people expect will happen as they age and experience health decline, especially those without retirement savings? Then again, if both of our U.S. Presidential candidates are ages 77 and 81 respectively, and that is arguably the most demanding and stressful job in the world, then maybe you can just work forever, retirement savings be damned? I doubt it though.
Then, in the past week I’ve listened to two of the most respected and smartest persons on Wall Street share their views directly to me on elevated interest rates for longer, higher inflation for longer, how many interest rate cuts we’re going to get this year (these guys say 1-2 cuts maybe/probably???) deglobalization, political polarization in the U.S., and the growing federal debt. For example, I did not know that pre-2008, the Fed’s balance sheet grew at roughly 6% per year and that post financial crisis, the Fed’s balance sheet has been growing at 16%. Now I know. If I am honest I kind of wish I didn’t know, but at the same time it’s good to know these things, especially in my line of work. You have to be informed and educated to a certain level. I know that.
But what do you do with all of this information?
Well…You do the best you can.
A guy I really liked in our community passed away this week. He was about my age and we both had sons in the same grade. We went to church together and I’ve known him probably 20 years. We weren’t close, but I liked him a whole lot and it’s tragic and sad. Makes me think about the people that do love him and what this means for them. And then it makes me think about the people I’m close to and what all of this means. And frankly, it seems for the last few years a lot of people I like, or that I am close to (sometimes really close to) are passing away too soon or dealing with health issues, family issues or struggles of some sort. I feel like it is in my face every week if not every other day. So what do you do? If I stopped here, it would be just sad and perhaps even drag me back a few steps. But that’s not where I am or where I want to be.
I want to look forward. Be grateful. Lessons learned, many the hard way. Wise in what I do not know. But looking forward. And hopeful.
I watched a show where the famous Japanese sushi chef Masa Takayama was visiting with another well known sushi chef in Japan. Both men have long, 30 year plus careers with a lot of respect earned between them. There was context around the conversation, but in the midst of some lamenting by the second chef, Masa said, “Life starts from here. From now on is the good part.”
Wow I thought! This is wisdom. This is hope.
I also noticed that I had not written anything like a Fireside or a Campfire Chat in almost a year and that my last musing was around what’s important in life when my wife went under for surgery in April 2023. It’s funny now that I am returning to that after not writing in almost a year because it’s not often what you say, but what you don’t say that reflects where you are. And then to come back to the same theme must then say that I feel this stuff is important and that I myself am on a journey, albeit a journey that will never be finished.
And so, in a world where I’m not particularly excited about our political leaders, nor do I know what inflation will do from here and how it will really affect us further than it already has dramatically, and what the economy looks like and subsequently the markets and what that means to people I serve as clients and friends and that I deeply care about, as well as even more importantly all of our collective health, both physically and emotionally…in this world I reside… I do the best that I can.
My advice to anyone (including myself) these days:
Hope - not Pollyanna hope, but hope rooted in truths and wisdom and the best of people.
Be Present. “Be where your feet are,” says my friend Bob.
Be emotional. Laugh, cry, let your frustrations out, all of it.
On your money:
Give some away first. To your community, you church, your charity, your school, your family, friends, strangers. To not hold on too tightly to the thing that drives our world is very freeing indeed.
Save some of it and more than you think. My business partner Andy is particularly good in making this point to friends and clients. Be a little bit uncomfortable saving today. That said…Retirement is just a word but our dreams and real tangible things to look forward to are not. Saving for six months, six years, or 36 years does all sorts of good and pays dividends to real tangible dreams and goals you have for your life and the people you care about.
Then with what’s left…spend what you spend on how you want to spend it day to day without spending it into the red. Everybody likes different things and has different priorities. That’s cool. Makes it more interesting.
Have dreams and goals. Plan for an exciting future to match the hope you have. Plan for contingencies and risks. Of course we can help with this. And then, after you plan, continue to live in the present and know that plans change and that’s okay too.
Last, but definitely not least, have a community. Find a few friends. A family. A place. People need people. Love.
In a world where I know there’s a lot I will never know, this is what I know today. And I’m on a journey, just like you. We’re doing the best we can.
P.S. – in the interest of fun if you are looking for a good playlist (subjective of course) as you sit around the campfire this Spring and Summer, here’s one I’ve made that I’m listening to. It’s on Spotify under my profile, under the name “Jayson’s Campfire.” Here’s a link. Enjoy! https://open.spotify.com/playlist/5vE5N45SyxmNaEsDkqTl37